This is a good article from Wired News on the unpredictability of Hurricanes. An excerpt:
National Hurricane Center meteorologist Robbie Berg said Saturday afternoon from Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida’s western coast: “Strangely enough, we’re better at track forecasting. It’s the intensity forecasting we’re still struggling with a bit.”
He also points out how they gave ample warning to everyone but the media hounded on the projection of it landing in Tampa. Guess that’s why it’s always good to look at the maps put out by the National Hurricane Center.