Colorado State University and the Tropical Storm Research make predictions about how many hurricanes there will be each year. They said there would be 17 named storms in 2007.
But just how accurate are these predictions? My favorite hurricane site evaluated the predictions since 2000. The result? If you give them a margin of error of 4, they got it right 4 out of 6 times.
So what can we deduce from the prediction of 17? There’s a 67% chance that there will be between 13 and 21 named storms in 2007.
But what this doesn’t tell us is how many of them will make landfall. And honestly, that’s all that matters. Hopefully it’ll be like last year when no named storm made landfall in the US.
The 2007 Hurricane Season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30.