As I always like to do, I track hurricanes and like to post updates here especially when it may effect Orlando. While looking around last night, I found a great hurricane map that will plot historical storms and current predicted storms. Using it I realized a few similarities of what Fay is predicted to do against what Hurricane Charlie did in 2004. Here’s the Google Map comparing Hurricane Charlie vs Fay’s predicted path.
As you can probably see, the path that Fay (in yellow) is taking is quite similar to what Charlie (in red) took. A couple of things of note about this:
- By the time Charlie cleared Cuba it was a Cat 2 hurricane. Fay should still be a tropical storm.
- Charlie roared from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in the open waters from Cuba to landfall in Florida. Fay will probably have less time over open water but can strengthen significantly.
When you zoom in on the projected map you’ll see where the similarities get tight:
A couple of notes on this:
- Fay really could strike anywhere. The cone (not shown) is big, but it’s clear it’s aiming for the Charlotte Harbor area. This is exactly where Charlie went.
- Charlie was originally predicted to go to Tampa but when it strengthened, it also turned so that it went straight through Orlando.
Bottom line at this point for me is that Fay could just cause some 30 mph winds and 3 inches rain in Orlando as predicted. But she really does have the potential to blow up and cause more damage. Charlie made some big changes quickly in the same area Fay will be in. Already this year Hurricane Bertha jumped from a Cat 1 to a Cat 3 in 12 hours leaving meteorologists baffled. And oh by the way, Charlie came through in mid-August also.
People all along the Florida west coast from Marco Island to up through Tampa need to pay close attention. And here in Orlando, we have to watch for that east wobble that could come. We’ll know more Monday. Florida should start feeling Fay’s effects late Monday and Tuesday.
Stay tuned here and I’ll post what I know when I can. However I really encourage you to check out the auto-fed and discussion room on FriendFeed. Good stuff happening there. You don’t have to be a member to read it, but you do in order to comment or post anything there.
As a sort of PS here, if Fay stays on it’s predicted path, she could head to the upstate of South Carolina where she could dump a lot of much needed rain to that area currently in drout.